Talking : Loud :: Saying : Nothing

Jews shouldn’t be voting – I’m not sure anyone should be – but how Jews vote in America interests Occidental Israeli as it has interested me. The main indicator of how Americans of the Mosaic persuasion identify themselves politically and cast ballots is as a function of their religiosity. Jews who are more religious are more politically conservative and vote for more Republicans; Jews who are less religious are more politically progressive and vote for more Democrats.

Note: if they attend Reform temple every week, they may be religious, but since the religion is not actually Judaism, for these purposes they may be considered less religious.

So is there any connection between age and religiosity? Demographically, the Orthodox movement is skewed young and the Reform movement is skewed elderly. It stands to reason, then, that young Jews in America have a higher likelihood of being more religious and more politically conservative, and elderly Jews have a higher likelihood of being less religious and more politically progressive.

But that’s not the whole story, either. Actually, the young generation of Jews in America is both more religious and less religious than their parents’ generation. That is to say:

1. A small but growing group of them do more mitzvot, are more involved in the Jewish community, make Aliyah at a higher rate and tend towards political conservatism. This trend reflects, and is the American Jewish version of, the spread of Christian evangelism that started in the 1970s after the hippy era. It’s like another Great Awakening or something.
2. A larger but also growing group do fewer mitzvot, are more distant from the Jewish community, express total indifference about Israel and are immersed in political progressivism. These are simply the avant-garde of the assimilation we all know, the ones who are almost completely assimilated and whose children will not be identifiably Jewish, if they have any children at all.
3. The largest group by far is the one that’s shrinking the fastest. These are my parents and grandparents: religiously connected, but minimally; identify with Israel, but usually through donations to Federations and perhaps a Guilt Trip to Israel. They are overwhelmingly partisan Democrats more than they are ideologically progressive.

Some of the children of group 3 parents will stay in this group, which is why Jews in America will continue mainly to support Democrats in the foreseeable future. But as their children increasingly join one of the other groups, the number of Jews voting for Republicans will slowly but steadily increase over time… unless group one is depleted completely by mass Aliyah… and until groups two and three are depleted completely by assimilation. I assume these processes will play out completely within 50 to 75 years.

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Tags:   21st century · aging · Aliyah · americans · christianity · convservatism · democracy · demography · israel · philanthropy · predictions · progressivism · religionNo Comments